Russia Rising: What Is Happening In Ukraine?

4 min readJan 24, 2022

Tensions are rising at Ukraine ‘s border as Russia masses up troops. This is not something new, but a situation escalating since the 2013–2014 Euromaidan. There are several explanations for the current situation and possible outcomes. In this article we will try to look at it in a calmly fashion and lay to rest fear-mongering. Our focus will be on describing Russia’s buffer border strategy, its continued influence on its former empire, economic reasons.

Prelude to Tensions

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Ukraine kept close ties with Russia. However, their relationship was not always straight-forward. The first cracks were visible during the 2004 Orange Revolution. Viktor Yushchenko eventually won the elections, defeating Russian favourite, Viktor Yanukovych. This marked Ukraine’s approach towards the West.

The 2010 elections saw Yanukovych facing off Yulia Tymoshenko which he won. Between 2011 and 2014, Tymoshenko became a political prisoner under accusations of corruption. However, she would later be rehabilitated by the Supreme Court and European Court of Human Rights.

During this period, Ukraine grew close to Russia again. Until, in on November 21, 2013 protests broke in Kiev as Yanukovych did not sign the EU Association Agreement. These protests broke into a full-blown revolution as security forces escalated the violence. The pro-Russian president fled to Moscow and Ukraine would change course.

Donbass Explodes

Following the 2014 Revolution, Russia moved to annex Crimea in order to preserve control of its naval base in Sevastopol. In this context a civil war broke out in Donbas. This region was mostly pro-Russian. The separatists received military (equipment) and economic aid from Moscow. However, some argue that they also sent elite troops disguised as rebels.

The fighting came to a stalemate in February 2015 with the Minsk II protocols. However, this was merely on paper. Currently, Ukraine’s borders are disputed which blocks its path to NATO and the EU. This serves Russia’s interests in certain ways which we will explore further on in the article.

Buffer Border

One explanation for what is happening is Russia’s buffer border system. Their security strategy relies on shielding the motherland from foreign aggressors by maintaining a slew of satellites around. During the 1990s this area became smaller as East European countries joined the European Union and NATO. This threatens Russia’s traditional security policy. For more on this, check our article Buffer Borders.

Projected Image

Another way of looking at the situation is from the perspective of the image Russia tries to project. This must be seen on two levels, domestically and internationally. However, both play a very important role in Moscow’s discourse and grip on power. It is a matter of legitimacy.

Domestically, Russia is struggling with an ongoing economic crisis. This can give new strength to opposition leaders as dissatisfaction among the people rises. In this context, Putin will seek to not look weak in the face of his supporters. Russia has always loved its strongmen. Also, by maintaining a sort of siege mentality, the regime can shift the blame for the crisis on foreign enemies. This is by no means a new strategy. The Soviets used it successfully for decades.

Internationally, Russia has its own agenda and objective. Firstly, it must not seem weak in the eyes of its allies. Here we think especially of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. It is the supporter of several authoritarian regimes in Central Asia. Secondly, Russia has been trying for two decades now to wash away the image of weakness of the 1990s. This is especially in the relationship with the West.

Limits Of This Strategy

Before we panic and declare war we should try to understand what are the limits of Russia’s strategy. Firstly, if a conflict does break, it is most likely that the invasion would be centred on Donbas. The regime would still need to justify its actions to its people. Especially, since Russia projects the image of a peace loving nation. In this case they would be aiding other Russians or allies and would not be aggressors.

Secondly, invading a neighbouring country would raise further issues. Being an aggressor would make their allies suspicious. What if they would become victims in the future. It is doubtful that Moscow would want this to happen, there would be nothing to gain.

Thirdly, the West is sending military equipment in Ukraine and training its troops. They are now more capable of mounting a resistance than they were before. Simply put, it would be a matter of costs for Russia. A full-blown invasion with heavy casualties would be difficult to explain back home. A repetition of the Winter War against Finland is certainly not on Moscow’s wish-list.

Conclusions

It seems unlikely that a full-blown war will break out. Both sides seem to be engaged in a game of chess, trying to outwit each other. However, neither wants to lose any pieces. War is costly and messy, especially in times like these. Russia aims to underline that it is strong again and that it will not readily abandon its zone of influence. The West on the other side must not give too many concessions as it might then seem weak. The coming weeks will be crucial for the future of Ukraine.

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